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Nomogram Based on Clinical Characteristics to Predict 28-Day Mortality Among Patients with CRAB-BSI by Jiong Xiong, Xiaoqian Zhou, Yan Tang

Background: The drug resistance of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii bloodstream infections (CRAB-BSI), especially hospital-acquired infections, has promoted their rapid and vast spread. It is necessary to use reliable methods to establish better prediction models. According to Cox proportional hazards regression, a nomogram was established.
Methods: A retrospective cohort study among patients who were diagnosed with CRAB-BSI was performed from January 2020 to December 2022. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors regarding CRAB-BSI. Then, nomograms were used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC), C-index, and calibration curve to determine the predictive accuracy and dis-criminability. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was employed to further confirm the clinical effectiveness of the nomogram.
Results: A total of 98 cases were included in the comparison between the 28-day mortality group consisting of 32 patients and the 28-day survival group with 66 patients. The use of cefoperazone-sulbactam was significantly higher among patients who survived than among those who died. Univariable analysis revealed that factors such as primary diagnosis, time to inadequate antimicrobial therapy, and high serum creatinine and procalcitonin (PCT) levels were more prevalent in the mortality group. However, only primary diagnosis, time to inadequate antimicrobial therapy, and high PCT levels emerged as statistically significant risk factors for death in multivariate analysis and were used to construct the nomogram. The nomogram validation exhibited excellent performance.
Conclusions: The nomogram was sufficiently accurate to predict the risk and prognostic factors of CRAB-BSI, allowing for individualized clinical decisions for future clinical work. The cefoperazone-sulbactam did have an effect, but more studies are needed to interpret it.

DOI: 10.7754/Clin.Lab.2023.230732